Collective Wisdom synopsis

This is a synopsis of the report on Collective Wisdom, an innovation-research project carried out by Mark Abouzeid in collaboration with Carmen Ciciriello between 2003 and 2004.  It investigates the potential for identifying disruptive innovation as it develops at the microscopic level using human behaviour as a primary signal.

The report isolates five variables: 1) change in normal human behaviour as the leading indicator of disruptive innovation and new trends; 2) the internet and other forms of binary media provide a valid mirror for all human interaction; 3) the temporal nature of this media adds memory to the equation allowing us to track change over time; 4) disruptive innovation is born on the edge of chaos where seemingly casual relationships come together and reach critical inertia; 5) markets develop as complex adaptive systems with hubs or ‘strange attractors’ acting as viral agents.

Case Study: TALC as applied to Content Management Systems Technology Adoption

Content Management Systems were first developed as one off complex solutions for Newspaper and Magazine publishers.  A package (not dissimilar to e-procurement) of components pieced together to address the specific workflow needs of target customers, over time leading designs emerged: Vignette, Interwoven, Oracle and even IBM offered ‘packaged’ solutions still targeted at the limited market of Media Publishers with investment costs in the millions justified due to the complexity, personalization required and limited market size.

Technology adoption lifecycle revisited

Technology Adoption Lifecycle Analysis (TALC)

New technology presents risk for many customers. They react differently toward this risk based on their innate characteristics, the wants and needs of their companies, and the behaviour of other buyers. The Technology Adoption Life Cycle (TALC) models how different groups of customers adopt to discontinuous innovation at different times. This model helps policy makers and technology developers build the best strategy for each phase of a product’s life.

Towards a new economic model

The year is 1986 and a young MBA student at Georgetown is listening to a Lecture on macro economics and market economies.  The noted professor has just finished explaining that excluding certain unquantifiable variables, the models attributed to Friedman Economics can predict market cycles and provide the insight necessary to adapt conditions to those favorable for growth and stability.

The student, innocently enough, poses the question: “Can’t we make any model work if we exclude the variables that don’t fit?  Moreover, social welfare, quality of life, community dynamics and happiness are not simple, optional variables to be discarded so easily.” The student is asked to leave the class, only to return when he learns respect.

A different Approach

All efforts, to date, overlook the prime, leading indicator of new markets, trends, innovations and technologies…changing human behaviour…the driving force.

Intuitively, most of us understand that 90+% of everything we do is habitual.  Every day we repeat the same actions, thoughts, interactions, conversations and activities.

When we do CHANGE our habitual BEHAVIOUR, we provide a clear signal that something different is happening: that we have interest, intent or involvement in something new.  When enough people change their behaviour, a new market is born.